Birmingham Stallions at Houston Roughnecks odds, picks and predictions

Kevin Erickson

Staff Writer

The Birmingham Stallions (4-0) travel to meet the Houston Roughnecks (1-3) Saturday at Rice Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (FOX). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Stallions vs. Roughnecksodds and make our expert UFL picks and predictions.

The defending USFL champion Stallions held on for a 20-18 win over the D.C. Defenders last weekend, but they came nowhere near covering as 9-point favorites. The Under (46.5) cashed, and the total has now gone low in 3 of 4 games to date.

Birmingham has averaged 23.5 points per game (PPG) in 2 road outings while allowing just 13.5 PPG. The Stallions are 2-0 against the spread (ATS) away from home while cashing the Under in both instances.

The Roughnecks got off the schneid last week with a 17-9 win over the Arlington Renegades at Rice Stadium. The defensive effort was easily the best of the season for Houston, as it had allowed 25.0 PPG in the first 3 outings, cashing the Over twice.

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Stallions at Roughnecks odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:40 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Stallions -400 (bet $400 to win $100) | Roughnecks +310 (bet $100 to win $310)
Against the spread (ATS): Stallions -8.5 (-110) | Roughnecks +8.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 41.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Stallions at Roughnecks key injuries

Stallions

RB CJ Marable (undisclosed) out
QB J'Mar Smith (undisclosed) out
WR Isaiah Zuber (undisclosed) out

Roughnecks

QB Kenji Behar (undisclosed) out
RB Tiyon Evans (undisclosed) out
QB Jarrett Guarantano (ribs) out
RB Kirk Merritt (wrist) injured reserve
WR Reggie Roberson (undisclosed) out
TE Clint Sigg Jr. (undisclosed) out

Stallions at Roughnecks picks and predictions

Prediction

Stallions 25, Roughnecks 13

Moneyline

The Stallions (-400) are easily the best team in the UFL, boasting the best record at 4-0. The Roughnecks (+310) are no longer winless after last weekend, but they topped the winless Renegades. Houston is simply a step above the worst team in the league.

Birmingham is all but likely going to win this game, but you can't risk 4 times your potential return, especially on a road team.

PASS.

Against the spread

The STALLIONS -8.5 (-110) are a much better play on the road laying the points.

Birmingham has managed at least 20 points in each of its 4 games, but defense is what really sets the Stallions apart. The defending USFL champs have allowed 14 or fewer points in 3 of the first 4 games and 18 or fewer points in each outing.

The Roughnecks +8.5 (+110) are going to find the sledding difficult against the Stallions D. Houston has scored 20 or fewer points in every game this season.

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Over/Under

UNDER 41.5 (-115) is worth playing lightly, but go with a half-unit play at most.

The Under is 3-1 in 4 games for Birmingham this season, and the only reason the Week 3 meeting with Memphis went Over was the poor D of the Showboats -- Birmingham won 33-14.

Houston's offense is subpar. The defense has performed well at home, allowing just 13.5 PPG, and that's all the Roughnecks have to hang their hat on right now.

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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